Not bad, not bad

So, my attempt to hit the ground running failed. I came down with a nasty virus which basically kicked my ass all sunday. Couldn't eat for about 40 hours, and didn't play any poker. Luckily, this probably helped a lot in my weightloss aim.

Felt better last couple of days and played a lot of poker. Made $400 yesterday and $250 today. Nothing ground breaking, but i'm pleased. At the moment, I am withdrawing $400 from my bankroll each week as my "salary", so it's always huge to make $400 on the Monday and have the rest of the week as pure bankroll-growth grinding.

Anyway, some hands:

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5048173

This is a pretty sigh hand. Villain is one of the few players at $100nl FR on stars who can 4-bet here wider than {AA,KK}, so I feel I have to flat such a small 4-bet. On the flop, I don't feel I can check/call, because there's a lot of turn cards that really suck. I feel he is a player who will c-bet AK most of the time here, which probably makes my check/shove fine.

Bit deeper analysis:

Assume his bet/call value range is {TT+,AsKs}, then JJ is 32% to win on the flop. I'm risking $77 to win a $200 pot (assuming I'm called everytime), so I need to win 38.5% to break even. This means that everytime I'm called, I lose $13.

There is $69 in the pot, so I can figure out what % of the time he needs to be folding for a shove to be good. Let x be the % he folds. Then I need (x * $69) + (1 - x) *-$13 > 0.

Turns out I will profit from a check/shove here if x > 16%.

This means that out of the 15 combinations of AK he is folding on the flop, he needs to be c-betting 4 of them. And generally people c-bet too much, so this seems like a good assumption.

This makes check/shoving appear completely fine, even if i'm only facing a value 4-bet range preflop. And if you add in a few goofy hands or tilt calls with missed AK, that just makes it more profitable.

Of course, if you eliminate TT from his value range, then our equity when we get all in on the flop plummets, and we lose $32 when we're called. Meaning, we require villain to fold on the flop >31.7%. So to profit we now need him to be c-betting missed AK 9/15 times. Or 60%. I feel comfortable that villain probably would c-bet missed AK 60% of the time, meaning that even if we assign him a range preflop of {JJ+,AK}, as long as he is a fairly aggressive c-better, check/shoving the flop here will show a profit.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?5048283

I don't see how I can do anything but bet flop and bet turn, but I might post this in a forum to get opinions. It sucks to get raised on the turn, but there seems to be too much value in checking.

A villain aggressive enough to raise on this board is likely to raise a set on the flop, so I thought the best that villain could have on the turn was two pair/combo draw. A straight didn't seem very likely, as J8 only has a gutshot. 86 is plausible. Anyway, I don't see villain raise/folding the turn here ever, and i'm being offered 2-1 on my big draw, so I call.

Even without any money going in on the river, I have 13 clean outs to flush/straights which will certainly be best, and 2 board pairing flush cards, so I'm between 28% and 32.5% to hit, depending on how often my board pairing cards are good. And with the pot odds, I only need 28% to call.

The Jc on the river completes a LOT of the big combo draws I could have. Clubs got there, and 89 got there, and after my turn play my hand looks a lot like a draw, so I shove. This should be a really tough spot with the hand villain ended up having, but he snapped me off anyway. I believe he should be folding two pair hands, but then two pair is pretty much the same as a set. Given the speed of his call, I don't think my shove can be any good, but I like it in theory against a thinking opponent.